The Chiefs enter this divisional matchup as -8.5 favorites, with Denver +8.5 and a total of 46. Kansas City has dominated this rivalry for years, and nothing about Denver’s current defensive performance suggests that trend will change.
Denver has allowed explosive plays at one of the highest rates in the NFL. Their tackling has been poor, their communication on deep routes has broken down repeatedly, and opponents have consistently exploited mismatches in coverage. Kansas City’s offense is built to take advantage of those defensive weaknesses.
Kansas City’s passing game hasn’t been as explosive as in previous years, but it has been more methodical. They sustain drives well, convert on third down, and wear defenses down. Against a Denver team struggling to generate pass rush, Kansas City should move the ball efficiently.
Denver’s offense has been uneven. They’ve shown flashes of competence, but they haven’t sustained drives consistently enough to keep pace with a team like Kansas City. If they fall behind early, the game likely becomes one-dimensional, which favors the Chiefs.
The total at 46 feels low if Denver can contribute even modest scoring. Kansas City can score 30 on its own against this defense.
Prediction: Chiefs -8.5
