The Lions and Packers open October with one of the more intriguing early-season NFC North games, especially from a betting standpoint. Detroit enters as a small road favorite, hovering around Lions -2.5 at -110, while Green Bay sits at +2.5 with the same number. The total is posted at 45.5, and the early splits show bettors leaning slightly toward Detroit after their impressive September stretch.
This matchup centers heavily on line play. Detroit’s offensive line remains one of the best in the league, and when they’re healthy, they can impose their physical style on almost anyone. That translates well for bettors because Detroit becomes more predictable when they control tempo. Their play-action game opens up, and they tend to score touchdowns instead of settling for field goals. When the Lions win, they usually cover, because the game flow moves in their favor.
Green Bay, meanwhile, is still figuring out its offensive identity. Their quarterback play has shown flashes, but inconsistency has been the problem. Bettors have noticed that the Packers tend to start slowly, which has made first-half unders profitable. If they fall behind early, they shift into a more pass-heavy offense, which increases the chance of turnovers.
For Detroit bettors, the biggest concern is their secondary. They’ve played well at times, but they also give up occasional explosive plays, particularly on broken contain or scramble drills. Green Bay’s receivers can take advantage of that if the protection holds up.
The total at 45.5 feels accurate, but if Detroit dictates pace, this game could trend toward the under. If Green Bay turns it into a shootout, the over immediately becomes live, especially if Detroit is forced to answer.
The key matchup is Detroit’s run game against Green Bay’s interior defense. If Detroit averages four-plus yards per carry, they’ll likely cover. If they get stuffed early, the game becomes far more unpredictable.
Prediction: Lions -2.5
