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NBA Finals Game 4 Betting Line and Total Update

James Murphy
by in NBA on
Sports betting kiosk at Monarch Casino in Black Hawk, Colorado.
  • Game 4 of the NBA Finals is set for Wednesday, July 14 at 9:00 PM Eastern/6:00 PM Pacific with TV coverage on ABC in the US.
  • Phoenix leads the series 2-1 and will shift back to the Suns’ home court for Game 5.
  • The Milwaukee Bucks are a -4 or -4.5 point favorite in Game 4 with the total at 221.5 or 222.

The Milwaukee Bucks looked like a different team in Game 3 of their NBA Finals series against the Phoenix Suns. Back on their home court, the Bucks had no trouble with Phoenix as they took a 120-100 victory behind Giannis Antetokounmpo’s 41 points, 13 rebounds and six assists. Antetokounmpo also articulated what we said in our NBA Finals Game 3 preview about the urgency of not going down 0-3:

“We knew what kind of game this was going to be. We knew that if we lose the game you’re in the hole.”

The Bucks easily covered as -4 point home favorites but the total managed to stay ‘Under’. At 221.5 or 222, it was no doubt a tough beat for ‘Over’ players.

Game 4 of the NBA Finals is set for Wednesday, July 14 at 9:00 PM Eastern/6:00 PM Pacific with TV coverage on ABC. Although the Bucks took care of business in Game 3, they’re not out of danger yet. Heading back to Phoenix down 3-1 wouldn’t be quite as bad as heading back down 3-0 but not by much. In all sports, teams with a 3-1 best of seven series lead are 612-56 to go on and win the series (91.6%). If they play Game 5 at home, that winning percentage improves to 94%. In the NBA, teams with a 3-1 advantage go on to win a best of seven series 95% of the time with a record of 247-13. In the NBA Finals, only once has the team up 3-1 failed to win the championship with a record of 35-1 (97%).

No injury status information to worry about for Game 4 as the only players listed on the report are done for the year. Milwaukee starting shooting guard Donte DiVincenzo is out with a torn ligament in his left ankle suffered during Game 3 of the Bucks’ opening round playoff win over Miami. Depth is something of an issue for Milwaukee–particularly against Phoenix–so his absence is not an insignificant one.

Phoenix is without backup C/PF Dario Saric who is done for the year with a torn ACL suffered in the Suns ‘ Game 1 NBA Finals win. Saric will likely be a longer term issue for Phoenix than DiVincenzo’s injury will be for the Bucks and he could miss most if not all of the 2021-2022 season. The loss is significant for Phoenix as they hoped to rely on a ‘committee’ in the paint against Giannis Antetokounmpo.


The Don Best opener for Game 4 was Bucks -3.5 and money has shown for the home team. In Southern Nevada, we’re seeing mostly -4 while in Colorado, New Jersey and Iowa we’re seeing a decent mix of -4 and -4.5.

In the Las Vegas Valley, Stations Casinos is the only sportsbook of significance dealing a -4.5. SouthPoint, Circa, Golden Nugget, Westgate, Wynn, Caesars/William Hill and MGM Resorts are all at -4. In Colorado, William Hill, PointsBet, Betfred Sports, Elite Sportsbook, BallyBet, BetMonarch, TheScoreBet and WynnBET are all at -4. PlayWildwood, FoxBet, PlayUp, Betway, SkyUte, TwinSpires, BetMGM, BetRivers, DraftKings and FanDuel are at -4.5.. PlayMaverick (Colorado/Nevada) has the line at -3.5. Colorado’s Sportsbetting.com is offering Milwaukee -3.5 -122 with Phoenix at +3.5 +100. SBK/Smarkets in Colorado has multiple spreads with Milwaukee -4.5 -105/Phoenix +4.5 -112, Milwaukee -4 -115 /Phoenix +4 -103 and Milwaukee -5 +106/Phoenix +5 -122. New Jersey’s Tipico and Unibet are at -4.5 with Bet365 at -4. BetOnline.ag is at -4.5.

Phoenix is now 13-6 ATS in the playoffs and have had Milwaukee’s number in recent years. The Suns are 7-2 SU/ATS over the Bucks in the last three seasons including 2-2 SU/ATS in Milwaukee. Over the long term, Phoenix is on a 15-11 SU/16-9 ATS run against the Bucks dating back to 1996.


Total is 220.5 across the board in Southern Nevada, Colorado, New Jersey and offshore. A few big books including DraftKings and FanDuel were at 220 earlier in the evening but are now at 220.5. TwinSpires is the only book I’m seeing at 220 right now.

Phoenix has gone OV in 9 and UN in 10 during the playoffs while the Bucks have gone UN in 11 of their 19 playoff games. Milwaukee has gone UN in 6 of their last 7 spots when trailing in a playoff series. Phoenix is OV in 22 of 33 non-conference games this season. Before the UN in Game 3 the last 5 head to head in the series had gone OV. 6 of the L9 h to h have gone OV.


Moneyline for Game 4 has Milwaukee -185 or -190 at most books with takeback on Phoenix in a range between +150 and +160. TwinSpires has the ‘juicy’ price of Milwaukee -200/Phoenix +150 but is outdone by Playup which is offering Milwaukee -215/Phoenix +165. FoxBet has Milwaukee -188/Phoenix +145.


The series price has Phoenix as a favorite in the -240 to -255 range with takeback on the Bucks at +200 to +225.

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