It wasn’t that long ago that this would have been a marquee matchup. That’s no longer the case. The San Antonio Spurs are still a playoff team but they’re far from being the perennial championship contender that they were during the Tim Duncan/David Robinson era. Heading into this game the Spurs are in 6th place in the Western Conference with a 38-29 record putting them 7.5 games behind first place Golden State and 2.5 games back of 5th place Portland.
Dallas is another issue entirely. The Mavericks are very clearly in ‘rebuild mode’ and are in the process of clearing out their roster to give Mark Cuban et. al. the shot to bring in some free agents. The way things are going, he’ll also get the chance to nab a high pick in the NBA draft lottery. Were it not for the lowly Phoenix Suns, the Mavs would have the worst record in the Western Conference at 27-39. They’re just a few fractional points behind Memphis but 18 games back of West leading Golden State. Without DeAndre Jordan, Wesley Matthews, Dennis Smith Jr. and Harrison Barnes the Mavericks are most definitely a team with lottery level talent–or lack thereof.
The best thing that can be said about Dallas is that they’ve covered their last two games. They were very competitive against Houston on Sunday losing by 1 as +8 underdogs and cashed a ticket at Orlando on Friday despite losing outright. That doesn’t negate the fact that the Mavs have lost five straight, nine of ten and ten of their last twelve games. Before the two aforementioned ATS covers they had also failed to cover in 10 of 12 though immediately before that they went on a streak with eight straight ATS wins. For the year, they’ve been pretty solid at home going 21-12 SU/22-11 ATS. As a home underdog, they’re 12-3 ATS,
The Spurs, however, are in much better form. Following a rough month of February where they went 3-7 SU/2-8 ATS they’ve won five straight going 4-1 against the number. They’ve beat some good teams in that stretch with wins over an improving Detroit team, Oklahoma City, Denver and Milwaukee as well as a victory over hapless Atlanta. The head to head series has had a strange dynamic with the Spurs winning 8 of 10 but Dallas covering 8 of 10.
At this point, however, the Mavs are not worth touching. No line on this game as of yet but when it goes up the Spurs are the play.