NBA Basketball Betting: Miami Heat at New York Knicks

by James Murphy in NBA  / March 30, 2019

The New York Knicks are the worst team in the NBA by far. Out West, the Phoenix Suns have a similar record but they’ve also got budding superstar Devin Booker who has put up 50 points in back to back games. He’s the kind of player you can build a franchise around. The Knicks have nothing to build around except a lot of expendable bodies that will help them clear cap space. At one point, any high profile free agent would have loved to play in New York City. The city is still a draw, but the Knicks’ franchise is so dysfunctional that the total package becomes a tough sell.

When you factor in the Knicks’ ATS record you have to conclude that this is one of the worst NBA team in recent memory. No matter how you slice it situationally, the Knicks are pitiful. 30-43-2 ATS overall for 41.1%. In other words, if you blindly bet against the Knicks in every game this season you’d be hitting 58.9%. Keep in mind that our friend on the other side of the counter aka the bookmaker doesn’t like it to be this easy so the Knicks’ opponents keep being priced higher and higher. No matter–the Knicks keep losing SU and ATS. In their last 9 spots as double digit underdogs dating back to mid February New York is 0-9 SU/2-7 ATS.

At home, New York is 12-23-2 ATS (34.3%) and 10-18-2 ATS as a home underdog. The enter this matchup on a brutal 1-13 SU/3-11 ATS run. They face a dangerous foe tonight but who are we kidding? They’re all dangerous for the Knicks. Anyway, the Miami Heat are furiously trying to hold on to the 8th and final playoff spot in the East. Actually, there are five teams in the running for three spots. Currently Detroit, Brooklyn and Miami are ‘in’ and separated by a total of 1 game in the standings. Orlando and Charlotte are on the outside looking in with the Magic trailing Miami by 1/2 game and the Hornets trailing by 2 games.

That makes this a veritable ‘must win’ game for Miami. Typically, in must win games you want to go against the team that ‘must win’. Miami is fortunate in that they’re facing a ‘must win’ game against a team that won’t do anything to stop them. The Heat have been an excellent pointspread play away from home this year going 24-12 (66.7%) on the road. The Heat are 10-4 SU/8-5-1 ATS in the month of March and had no trouble with the Knicks in two previous meetings. They don’t have a particularly easy schedule the rest of the way starting with a home and home series against the Boston Celtics on Monday and Wednesday so they need to win this game. They’ll exert a good effort, the Knicks will exert little to no effort and Miami wins and covers.

Our Pick

James Murphy

James Murphy is a preeminent authority on the international gambling industry and has made frequent appearances in the mainstream media including the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Forbes, Entertainment Weekly, CNBC and NPR. He has previously worked as a radio and podcasting host where he broadcast to an international audience that depended on his expertise and advice. Murphy also serves as an odds making consultant for sports and ‘non-sport novelty bets’ covering the entertainment industry, politics, technology, financial markets and just about everything else.

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