MLB Baseball Betting Report For April 17, 2019

by James Murphy in MLB  / April 16, 2019

With the NBA and NHL playoffs underway we’ll turn our attention to baseball betting. Our daily baseball betting reports will highlight the plays that look appealing. As the NHL/NBA playoffs continue and into the Summer months we’ll step up our baseball betting coverage until it’s time for football again.

MLB BASEBALL BETTING REPORT FOR APRIL 17, 2019

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS AT MILWAUKEE BREWERS (1:40 PM EASTERN START)

The Milwaukee Brewers have cooled off a bit over the past week or so but they still check in with the best record in the National League at 12-6. St. Louis will start righthander Michael Wacha who is in the process of trying to re-establish his form after a season ending oblique strain in 2018. Wacha was having an excellent year at 8-2 with an ERA of 3.20 and WHIP of 1.23 prior to the injury. He’s definitely a work in progress and he’s struggled with his control at times. In three starts he’s got a 5.28 ERA with the Cards 1-3 when he takes the hill. The good: he’s allowed only 15 hits YTD with 17 strikeouts. In his first two starts he went 11 2/3 innings allowing 1 earned run in each. The bad: in his last start on April 11 at home against Los Angeles he went 3 2/3 innings allowing 8 hits, 7 earned runs and 3 home runs. Ironically, the Cards beat the Dodgers despite Wacha’s miserable showing. His biggest issue at this point is an ugly 13 walks in 15 1/3 innings which makes his WHIP 1.825. He was very effective against Milwaukee on March 31 allowing 4 hits and 1 earned run in 6 innings.

Wacha will be opposed by hard throwing Corbin Burnes who has an ugly ERA (10.05 overall, 9.90 at home) and has allowed 9 home runs in 14 1/3 innings of work. He’s also put up 21 strikeouts in 14 1/3 innings of work. He opposed Wacha on 3/31 and that start is essentially a microcosm of his season. The good: 12 strikeouts and 1 walk in 5 innings of work. The bad: 3 home runs and 4 ER against in 5 innings of work. It’s unclear at this point whether Milwaukee is the ‘real deal’ or for that matter where St. Louis is going. For whatever reason, they’ve dominated the Cards this season going 5-1 +3 units and have been at their best in divisional play with a record of 10-2 +7.8 units. They’re averaging 6.7 runs per game at home and have gone Over in 8 of 10. We’ll play this one accordingly.

Our Pick
BET MILWAUKEE BREWERS (BURNES) -130 OVER ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (WACHA)
Our Pick
BET MILWAUKEE/ ST. LOUIS OVER 9 -125

CINCINNATI REDS AT LOS ANGELES DODGERS (3:10 PM EASTERN START)

The Los Angeles Dodgers lost a ton of loot at Chavez Ravine last season cost their financial backers a whopping -22.7 units! The only thing that the Reds are in contention for is the worst record in baseball at 5-10 (pending the outcome of Tuesday’s night game against the Dodgers). As bad as the Reds have been right hander Sonny Gray has pitched very well though Cincinnati has managed to lose two of his three assignments. Gray has a 2.02 ERA, a 1.049 WHIP with 13 strikeouts against 4 walks. The Reds finally got a win with Gray on the mound in his last start though he didn’t factor in the decision. Here’s how badly they’ve been leaving Gray out to dry this year–in his first two starts he went 9 1/3 innings giving up 8 hits and 3 earned runs. In support, the Cincy offense dropped a big goose egg.

In the other corner is Walker Buehler who has put up woeful numbers this season but has been the beneficiary of the Dodgers’ prodigious offensive attack. Buehler has a 8.25 ERA working 12 innings in 3 starts. At home, he’s got a 15.00 ERA and 2.00 WHIP after a 3 inning start against Arizona on March 31 where he allowed 5 earned runs. The Dodgers got him off the hook as they went on to win 8-7. I’ve always done well backing Sonny Gray and it’s particularly tough passing him up as a +170 underdog.

Our Pick
BET CINCINNATI REDS (GRAY) +170 OVER LOS ANGELES DODGERS (BUEHLER)

HOUSTON ASTROS AT OAKLAND ATHLETICS (10:05 PM EASTERN START)

Pretty simple premise here–Houston is scorching hot having won 10 straight assuming that they don’t blow a 8-0 lead after 7 innings in Tuesday night’s game. Also assuming they cashed that ticket they’re 4-0 against Oakland this season. The Astros were a veritable ATM machine away from Minute Maid Park last season earning +24.5 units. Oakland has been decent against left handers this year but Wade Miley has owned them throughout the course of his career going 5-1 with a 1.40 ERA and a 1.190 WHIP. He started against the A’s at home on 4/6 pitching 5 2/3 innings allowing 4 hits and 0 earned runs en route to a 6-0 Astros win.

Our Pick
BET HOUSTON ASTROS (MILEY) -110 OVER OAKLAND ATHLETICS (MONTAS)

James Murphy

James Murphy is a preeminent authority on the international gambling industry and has made frequent appearances in the mainstream media including the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Forbes, Entertainment Weekly, CNBC and NPR. He has previously worked as a radio and podcasting host where he broadcast to an international audience that depended on his expertise and advice. Murphy also serves as an odds making consultant for sports and ‘non-sport novelty bets’ covering the entertainment industry, politics, technology, financial markets and just about everything else.

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