- Baseball betting is in full swing as the 2021 season heads into the second half.
- The San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers have the best record in the National League.
- The Chicago Whiter Sox and Boston Red Sox are tied for the best record in the American League
We’ll go ‘back to the OG’ over the next few weeks as we focus on daily betting previews for Major League Baseball. I’ve never really understood why baseball has so little interest among recreational bettors. At one point, it was neck and neck with NHL hockey for the lowest betting handle of the major North American team sports. Now it’s decidedly behind hockey and depending on the numbers you’re looking at might be below MLS soccer and WNBA basketball. This is a shame as baseball offers so many different betting options and affords itself to so many different handicapping strategies. That’s why so many ‘sharp’ players love baseball betting.
Full disclosure–it’s been awhile since I’ve done baseball handicapping on a day to day basis so it might take me a week or so to get my chops back. My handicapping methodology in baseball is something of a hybrid. There are so many ‘tools’ in the baseball betting ‘toolbox’ I try a number of strategies throughout the season and stick with what works. I’ve been successfully betting baseball for nearly 25 years now so I must be doing something right ;-)
MLB BASEBALL BETTING PREVIEW FOR THURSDAY, JULY 22
You can find a printable version of today’s baseball rotation on the Don Best website
ATLANTA BRAVES AT PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES 7:05 PM EDT/4:05 PM PDT
The Atlanta Braves were at one point among the biggest ‘public’ teams in baseball back when giants like Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and John Smoltz roamed the grounds of Turner Field. These days are long gone, the Braves have moved from Turner Field out to Truist Park in suburban Cobb County and the team has bounced back and forth being embraced and disdained by the public. Over the past few seasons, Atlanta has turned in double digit profits but this year they’re in the red by double digits. As of this writing (following Wednesday’s suspended game against San Diego) the Braves have lost -12.1 units. Atlanta was getting a good deal of respect heading into the season–they were a +1000 choice to win the World Series at that point–but have disappointed bouncing just above or below the .500 mark. They’ve struggled equally at home and on the road and check in with a -4.9 unit tally in away games. Philadelphia, meanwhile, has produced a +8.1 unit profit at home. Atlanta’s Charlie Morton has run hot and cold all season–he’s capable of a strong showing at any time–but the Braves are just 3-4 when he takes the ball on the road. Philadelphia’s Matt Moore doesn’t have great numbers but his team has won 6 of his 7 starts due in large part to solid run support. 6 of the L10 head to head have gone OVER the total and the Braves are OV in 5 of their L6 and 7 of their L9. Phillies OV in 7 of their L10 with 2 UN and a push.
BET PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES +125 OVER ATLANTA BRAVES
BET PHILADELPHIA/ATLANTA OVER 9 -110
SAN DIEGO PADRES AT MIAMI MARLINS 7:10 PM EDT/4:10 PM PDT
Padres the better team but even at 56-42 they’re having a hard time keeping pace in the NL West and enter play here 5 games back of the first place Giants. Miami isn’t much to write home about at 41-55 but they’re actually a game over .500 at home. The Padres are just 22-23 -8.3 units away from home this year. We’ll take a shot on the hard trying home side against the overvalued visitors.
BET MIAMI MARLINS +130 OVER SAN DIEGO PADRES
CHICAGO CUBS AT ST. LOUIS CARDINALS 7:15 PM EDT/4:15 PM PDT
Both teams have spent the season mired in mediocrity. In fact, they’re neck and neck in the NL Central standings right around the .500 mark with the Cubs 8.5 games back of the division leading Brewers and the Cards 7.5 games back. Cards have played reasonably well at home (27-20 +3.3 units) while the Cubs have struggled on the road (19-32 -10.6 units).
BET ST. LOUIS CARDINALS -125 OVER CHICAGO CUBS
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS AT LOS ANGELES DODGERS 10:10 PM EDT/7:10 PM PDT
The game of the night in the National League and it’s tough to justify the Dodgers as a -170 favorite against a team that leads them by a game in the standings (pending the outcome of Wednesday’s matchup). Dodgers are a tad overvalued–they’ve lost -1.5 units this year despite a 59-37 record while the Giants have made more money than any team in baseball (+23.2 units). SF has performed well away from home (29-22 +9.34 units) though the Dodgers have scraped out a small profit (+3 units) at Chavez Ravine. Walker Buehler has put up good numbers this year but Anthony Desclafani has also pitched well. Overall, this looks like a coin flip and if you consistantly play one side of a coin flip at +150 you’ll make a ton of money.
