Look, I get it. The Seattle Seahawks are the shiny new toy in the NFC. Sam Darnold has officially completed his “Ghostbuster” redemption tour, and Mike Macdonald’s defense is so suffocating it’s been known to give opposing offensive coordinators night terrors. Seattle is a 4.5-point favorite for a reason.
But if you’ve been betting against the New England Patriots this year, your bankroll probably looks like the Patriots’ 2024 win-loss record (a depressing 4-13).
This season, the Pats haven’t just been “good”—they’ve been a middle finger to every preseason projection that had them picking in the Top 5 again. They went from the basement to a 13-4 juggernaut because Mike Vrabel walked into Foxborough and decided that “The Patriot Way” didn’t need a hoodie; it needed a pulse.
The Case for the Underdog New England is currently sitting at +195 on the moneyline. Let’s talk about why that’s the “sharp” play. First, there’s Drake Maye. The kid is 23 years old and playing with the icy composure of a guy who’s been in the league since the leather helmet era. He’s the first QB in history to take down three top-five defenses in a single postseason (Chargers, Texans, and that snowy 10-7 dogfight in Denver). If he can carve up the Texans, he can handle Seattle’s “Dark Side” secondary.
Secondly, the Patriots are 8-3 ATS as underdogs this season. They don’t just “cover”—they hang around like that one guest at the party who won’t leave until they’ve finished all the appetizers. They are a “ugly win” machine. They win on special teams, they win with Carlton Davis III locking down the perimeter, and they win because Mike Vrabel is seemingly the only person who knows how to coach a game in 2026 without looking at a tablet every five seconds.
The Humor in the Hustle Betting on the Pats also gives you the distinct pleasure of being “that guy” in the sportsbook. You get to fade the 70% of public money currently pouring into Seattle. You get to remind everyone that the last time these two met in a Super Bowl, Seattle forgot they had a guy named Marshawn Lynch on the 1-yard line. History doesn’t just repeat; it mocks you.
While the “experts” are talking about Seattle’s EPA per play, I’m looking at a New England defense that has allowed only 26 points total across three playoff games. That’s 2000 Ravens territory.
The Verdict Stop overthinking it. You’re getting nearly 2-to-1 on your money for a team that refuses to die and a coach who treats every game like a bar fight. Take the points if you’re a coward, but if you want to buy a boat after Sunday, sprinkle that moneyline.
