Houston, We Have A Problem

by Joshua Riemer in News  / January 7, 2020

The Texans won this past Saturday dramatically, and now they get a matchup with the number 2 seeded Chiefs. Led by Patrick Mahomes and their incredible passing defense, the Chiefs cruised to a 12-4 record. They weren’t originally supposed to have a bye week coming into the playoffs, but they slide into the number two seeding due to the Patriots losing to the Dolphins in Week 17. Let’s breakdown both of the teams and see what we could have in store for Sunday’s game.

We will start with the Texans. The Texans have already seen this Chiefs team, and they looked good against them. They pulled out a win of 31-24 win over the Chiefs mostly due to their rushing attack. They scored three rushing touchdowns against the Chiefs. Two of them were from Deshaun Watson, but they also had an excellent performance from Carlos Hyde, who had 26 attempts with 116 yards and a touchdown. The Chiefs glaring problem at the beginning of the season was their weak front seven. They have improved significantly, and that has helped them against the running game. Over the past four weeks, the Chiefs have allowed 355 yards on the ground and two rushing touchdowns. Compare that to the first four weeks, and you see a drastic change. During the first four weeks of the season, the Chiefs allowed 599 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns. The Texans are going to have to find another way to win on Sunday because their rushing attack won’t be able to win it for them like the first game.

The Chiefs are coming into Sunday’s matchup well-rested and ready for revenge. The well-rested part comes heavily into play due to Andy Reid’s dominance when his team comes into a game with extra time to prepare. Going back to 2003-2004, Andy Reid’s teams have been extremely profitable when getting extra rest. ATS (against the spread) they have been 36-25-1 when having more than a week to prepare for games. When it comes to the playoffs, he is 3-1 ATS when he gets extra time to prepare for games. That includes last year’s shellacking of the Colts in the divisional round when the Chiefs won 31-13.

This game seems like a pretty easy pick, and I’m all over the Chiefs -9.5. Sure, that number sounds big, but this is a Houston team that got very lucky last week against the Bills. They won’t be getting lucky against Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid.

Joshua Riemer

Joshua Riemer is a Daily Fantasy Sports Analyst for RotoRadar: Leader in Daily Fantasy Sports Advice. Josh has been a Pro Analyst dating back to 2017 and specializes in the NFL, MLB, and NBA.

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