Early Super Bowl LIV Pointspread Shows Chiefs As Short Favorites

by James Murphy in NFL  / January 19, 2020

It’ll be the San Francisco 49ers against the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LIV (that’s ’54’ in Roman Numeral speak). Super Bowl LIV will be played at the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida on Sunday, February 2.

Kansas City held of a feisty challenge from the Tennessee Titans to win the AFC Championship game 35-24. The Titans scored the first ten points of the game and led 17-7 midway through the second quarter. From that point, it was ‘deja vu all over again’ from the Houston Texans’ experience last week. Kansas City outscored Tennessee 28-7 the rest of the way scoring four unanswered touchdowns before the Titans finally found the end zone with the outcome all but decided. Kansas City covered as -7 or -7.5 home favorites and the 59 combined points went ‘Over’ the total (51.5 was the most common number).

In the NFC Championship, the San Francisco 49ers had little trouble with the Green Bay Packers en route to a 37-20 win. Raheem Mostert ran over, around, under and through the Packers’ rush defense compiling 220 yards and four touchdowns. The Niners opened up a 27-0 lead at halftime and led 34-7 at the end of three quarters. Green Bay mounted a tepid comeback, scoring two touchdowns early in the fourth quarter before a 42 yard Robbie Gould FG put three on the board for San Francisco and produced the final result. San Francisco covered as a -8 or -7.5 home favorite with the 57 combined points easily exceeding the total of 47 or 47.5.

SUPER BOWL LINE OPENS NEAR PICK

Many sportsbooks opened Super Bowl LIV as a ‘Pick’em’ though the Chiefs were quickly bet up to a small favorite. At the time of this writing, most books are showing KC at -1 or -1.5. My kneejerk analysis suggests that the ‘public’ is betting the Chiefs but are getting at least some nominal takeback from the ‘sharps’ on the Niners. Several Las Vegas sportsbooks were reporting that 70% or more of their early bets were on Kansas City yet the Chiefs remained only a small favorite. That suggests that the 30% of early bets that were on San Francisco were big enough to keep the books in relative balance.

The total opened at 51.5 at most Nevada sportsbooks but has since received a steady flow of action on the ‘Over’. At the time of this writing, it has moved to 53.5 across the board with a couple of isolated books at 54. Before the Conference Championship games BetOnline.ag offered propsition bets on the ‘exact result’ of Super Bowl LIV. Not surprisingly, the two favorite outcomes involved the Niners and Chiefs and in this market at least San Francisco was at least a small favorite to win the big game.

SUPER BOWL LIV EXACT RESULT

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS OVER KANSAS CITY CHIEFS +225

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS OVER SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS +250

Stay tuned to SPORTSINSIDER.COM all the way up to the kickoff of Super Bowl LIV for the best line movement analysis available anywhere from our veteran team of Las Vegas professionals. You’ll also find some historical perspective of how the nature of linesmaking and betting patterns on the Super Bowl has changed over time.

James Murphy

James Murphy is a preeminent authority on the international gambling industry and has made frequent appearances in the mainstream media including the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Forbes, Entertainment Weekly, CNBC and NPR. He has previously worked as a radio and podcasting host where he broadcast to an international audience that depended on his expertise and advice. Murphy also serves as an odds making consultant for sports and ‘non-sport novelty bets’ covering the entertainment industry, politics, technology, financial markets and just about everything else.

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