The Indianapolis Colts overcame a rough start in 2018 to come back and make the playoffs. They’re in a tough spot if they’re hoping to reprise this achievement. After starting the season 5-2 SU the Colts have been ravaged by injuries and have won only 1 of their last 6 games. They’ve covered only 2 of their last 7 games going 2-4-1 in that stretch. In many ways, the Colts are victims of circumstances beyond their control with an absolutely insane list of skill position talent out long term.
They’ve got an even tougher task here as they travel to New Orleans to take on the Saints in a potentially very entertaining Monday Night Football matchup. The Saints are off an important loss to San Francisco in which they dropped a wild 48-46 decision. The good news for the Saints is that the damage of that loss was ‘undone’ in large part on Sunday as the Niners were upset by the Atlanta Falcons. It gives New Orleans the opportunity reclaim a tie for the best record in the NFC. Of course, the Niners still have the tiebreaker but the Saints will still be in a better position than they were previously.
Both teams have winnable games left on the schedule after this matchup. The Colts play at home against reeling Carolina and at Jacksonville to conclude the season. With the word on the street that Jacksonville is looking to ‘clean house’ in the off season they might encounter an unfocused Jaguars’ squad concerned more about their professional future than the game at hand. The Saints have a potentially tricky game at Tennessee on deck for Sunday. The Titans are one game off the pace in the AFC South so this could be a very important game for the home team. They’ll conclude their season playing at Carolina in a matchup that could mean a lot more to them than the swooning Panthers.
New Orleans hasn’t been a great ATS play at home over the past few years. They’re 3-4 ATS at the Mercedes Benz Superdome this year and on a 12-14 ATS run over the past three seasons. They’ve been particularly bad in this price range as a favorite of -7.5 to -10 points. They’re 5-2 SU but just 1-6 ATS in that role including 0-1 ATS this year. The Colts have been at their best against opponents with winning records not only this year but over the past three seasons. They’re 3-1 ATS in that role this year and 10-4 ATS in the past three seasons.
The Colts look like the play here and particularly if you shop this game around a bit as there are a number of ‘outs’ that have New Orleans installed as a -9.5 point home favorite. We’ll gladly take Indy getting the benefit of the half point over the ‘key number’.