If you stepped into a sportsbook this past Saturday morning, you likely saw a familiar sight at the top of the board: the Colorado Avalanche sitting as the heavy +275 favorites. On paper, it makes sense. Nathan MacKinnon is playing like a man possessed, recently becoming the league’s first 40-goal scorer this season. But for those of us who actually grind the tape and watch the injury reports, that “favorite” tag is starting to feel like a tax on the casual bettor.
The NHL is currently entering its Olympic hibernation for Milano-Cortina, but the sprint to the postseason is already revealing cracks in the giants. If you’re looking to place a Stanley Cup future before the market shifts again, here is where the smart money is actually landing.
The Avalanche Problem: Depth vs. Star Power
Colorado is a juggernaut, but January was their “mortal” month. While MacKinnon is a highlight reel, the team has been plagued by a mounting injury list. Captain Gabriel Landeskog is out for “some weeks” following a scary collision with a goalpost, and the blueline has looked uncharacteristically shaky with Devon Toews sidelined. The recent 7-3 blowout losses to Montreal and Philly aren’t just anomalies; they are symptoms of a team leaning too hard on its top line. At +275, the risk-to-reward ratio is tilted the wrong way.
The Lightning Strike Back
If you want to talk about “momentum,” look no further than Tampa Bay (+400). The Bolts just completed a historic January, going 11-1-1 behind a vintage performance from Nikita Kucherov. They capped off the month this past Sunday with a ridiculous four-goal comeback win against the Bruins in the Stadium Series at Raymond James Stadium.
When Andrei Vasilevskiy is healthy and Kucherov is logging 31 points in a single month, Tampa isn’t just a contender—they are the standard. They have the postseason pedigree that Colorado currently lacks in the “depth” department.
The Expert Pick: The Carolina “Value” Play
For my money, the best value on the BetOnline board right now is the Carolina Hurricanes at +800.
Why? Because while the hockey world focuses on the stars in Tampa and Denver, Rod Brind’Amour has quietly built a defensive fortress in Raleigh. The emergence of Brandon Bussi in net (20-3-1) has finally given this team the elite goaltending they’ve lacked in previous playoff runs. Carolina’s 9-1 dismantling of the Panthers in mid-January proved they can flip the switch and embarrass elite competition. They lead the Metropolitan Division for a reason, and getting them at nearly triple the payout of Colorado is the definitive “sharp” play of the week.
The Pick: Carolina Hurricanes (+800)
