Listen up, degenerates. It’s that time of year again when eight teams descend upon Dayton, Ohio—the basketball equivalent of purgatory—for the NCAA Tournament’s “First Four.” It’s March Madness’s awkward opening act, the basketball nobody asked for but everyone will watch because, well, it’s technically still March Madness and we’re all desperate for action.
This year’s First Four features two distinct flavors of desperation: the “we absolutely did this to ourselves” at-large bubble teams, and the “we’re just happy to be here” 16-seeds who actually earned their way in. Let’s break down these matchups with the respect they deserve—which is to say, not much, but enough to find an edge.
Texas vs. NC State (PK at BetOnline)
Oh, this is rich. Two power conference teams with a combined 38-27 record playing on a Tuesday night in Dayton like they’re some mid-major conference champions. The Longhorns and Wolfpack both limped to the finish line like they’d been shot—Texas went 1-6 down the stretch, while NC State dropped seven of their last nine. Both teams have the defensive intensity of a turnstile. They already played once this season in Maui, a 102-97 Texas win that featured roughly zero defensive possessions. I’m not saying this will be another track meet, but if you like points, this is your game. The total is sitting at 161.5, and honestly, that might be low given that neither team can guard a parked car.
UMBC vs. Howard (+1.5 at BetOnline)
Ah, UMBC. The Retrievers. The only 16-seed to ever beat a 1-seed when they Virginia’d Virginia back in 2018. Now they’re back as slight 1.5-point favorites over Howard, because apparently Vegas thinks America East is slightly more prestigious than the MEAC. Both teams won their conference tournaments fair and square—UMBC beat Vermont by 15, Howard handled NC Central by seven. This is basically a coin flip game between two teams that will get absolutely boat-raced by Michigan in the next round, but hey, someone has to advance. The total is 142.5, which feels about right for two teams that grind possessions like they’re being paid by the hour.
Miami (OH) vs. SMU (-9 at BetOnline)
Here’s where things get interesting. Miami (OH) went 31-1 this season. Thirty. And. One. Their only loss came in the MAC Tournament quarterfinals to UMass, and somehow that was enough to drop them to the First Four. The committee basically said, “Nice record, but who did you play?” Meanwhile, SMU went 20-13 in the ACC, lost four straight to end the regular season, and somehow opened as 9-point favorites. Nine! That’s a massive number for a team that finished below .500 in conference play. Yes, the ACC is tougher than the MAC. Yes, SMU has better athletes. But nine points? That’s disrespectful to a team that didn’t lose a game for four months. The total is 165.5, suggesting Vegas expects SMU to run Miami out of the gym. I’m not convinced.
Prairie View A&M vs. Lehigh (-3 at BetOnline)
Prairie View A&M went 9-9 in SWAC play, then somehow won their conference tournament to punch a ticket to Dayton. They’re 18-17 overall, which means they’re the only team in the field with a losing record against Division I opponents. Lehigh went 11-7 in the Patriot League, benefited from Boston University upsetting top-seed Navy, and handled BU by 14 in the final. The Mountain Hawks are 3-point favorites, which seems reasonable given they’re actually above .500 and have slightly better metrics. The total is 148.5, and honestly, this might be the most watchable of the 16-seed games because both teams will play like their lives depend on it—because for their seasons, they do.
THE PICK
Here’s where I’m putting my money: Miami (OH) +9 (-110) at BetOnline. I don’t care about conference prestige or strength of schedule. I care about a team that went 31-1 and is getting nearly double-digit points against a team that lost four straight games to end the regular season. SMU is the better team on paper, but nine points is a massive cushion for a squad that knows how to win basketball games. The RedHawks have been disrespected all season because they played in the MAC. Let them use that disrespect as fuel. Even if they lose—and they probably will—keeping it within single digits against a team that couldn’t close out the regular season feels like a gift from the basketball gods.
Lock it in. And remember: if you’re betting the First Four, you’re already living on the edge. Might as well embrace the chaos.
