With the NBA All-Star festivities heading to the brand-new Intuit Dome in Los Angeles, all eyes are on Saturday night. But let’s be real: we aren’t here for the Skills Challenge. We’re here to see who can defy gravity and, more importantly, who can cover the spread.
With three-time champ Mac McClung finally stepping aside, the Slam Dunk Contest is wide open. For the first time in years, we have a field that feels fresh, bouncy, and—most importantly for us—mispriced.
The Legacy Play: Jase Richardson (+200)
The oddsmakers at BetOnline have Jase Richardson as the favorite, and for once, the chalk is right. Jase isn’t just a rookie with hops; he’s carrying the DNA of a two-time dunk champion. His father, Jason Richardson, delivered some of the most iconic slams of the early 2000s.
Scouts noted during his time at Michigan State that while Jase is “small” by NBA standards (6’1″), his verticality is explosive. Small dunkers always get a “visual bonus” from the judges because their dunks look more difficult. If he breaks out a tribute dunk to his old man, the “narrative” points alone will carry him to the trophy. At +200, you’re betting on genes and a high-flyer who knows how to put on a show.
The Rookie “Swing”: Carter Bryant (+210)
San Antonio’s Carter Bryant is the intriguing wild card. Standing 6’6″ with a reported 39.5-inch vertical at the combine, he’s a “pogo stick” athlete. The problem? He’s a “power” dunker. While that looks great in a game, the dunk contest rewards creativity and “hang time.” Bryant has struggled at times with “fluidity” in his finishes. Unless he’s been practicing some serious 360-windmills in Austin, I’m fading the Spurs rookie at these short odds.
The Veteran Bounce: Jaxson Hayes (+250)
Jaxson Hayes is the only contestant with actual NBA “poster” experience. He’s a 7-footer who can move like a wing, but history is not on his side. Big men historically struggle in this contest because they make “impossible” dunks look too easy. Unless he jumps over a literal car (or a teammate), the judges usually penalize him for his height.
The “Deep Sleeper”: Keshad Johnson (+375)
If you want a longshot, the Miami Heat’s Keshad Johnson is your guy. He’s a classic “dunk contest specialist”—an undrafted second-year player who hasn’t seen much NBA floor time but was a human highlight reel at Arizona and San Diego State. If he connects on his first attempt, the crowd will rally behind the underdog.
The Verdict: This is Jase Richardson’s night. He’s in a city that loves a legacy story, he has the built-in “small dunker” advantage, and he has a bag of tricks he likely learned in his driveway from a Hall of Fame dunker.
The Pick: Jase Richardson (+200)
