In our previous NFL Draft betting preview we looked at some of the props available for the second and third round at BetOnline.ag. In this preview, we’ll look at some ‘position props’ that pose the question ‘how many (insert position here) will be drafted in the first round? Generally speaking, the best to find NFL Draft betting value at this stage of the game is to look at the lower rounds and at more esoteric props. The type of prop we’ll look at here is likely the best way to get involved with the first round at a reasonable price. The prices used below are from BetOnline.ag unless otherwise noted:
TOTAL QUARTERBACKS DRAFTED IN ROUND 1
OVER 4 QBs DRAFTED +160 UNDER 4 QBs DRAFTED -230
This could very well end up being a ‘push’ no matter how you play it. The quarterbacks that appear to be solid first round picks are presumptive #1 pick Joe Burrow, Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa, Oregon QB Justin Herbert and Utah State QB Jordan Love. With a slight chance that Washington’s Jacob Eason might creep up to the first round we’ll go with the value on the ‘Over’.
BET OVER 4 QBS DRAFTED IN ROUND 1 +160
TOTAL RUNNING BACKS DRAFTED IN ROUND 1
OVER 0.5 RBs DRAFTED -165 UNDER 0.5 RBs DRAFTED +125
The ‘Under’ is the play here. No secret that teams no longer want to ‘waste’ a top draft pick on a running back when there are other ways to acquire them. Our projections suggest that the number of running backs selected in the first round will be a big fat ‘goose egg’. The first running back to go will likely be Georgia’s D’Andre Swift or LSU’s Clyde Edwards-Helaire somewhere mid 2nd round.
BET UNDER 4 RBS DRAFTED IN ROUND 1 +125
TOTAL TIGHT ENDS DRAFTED IN ROUND 1
OVER 0.5 TEs DRAFTED +375 UNDER 0.5 TEs DRAFTED -650
Tight ends are similar to running backs in that teams don’t want to use a high draft pick to get them. The best running back available is Notre Dame’s Cole Kmet who should go early to mid second round. Can’t see a scenario in which he’d creep up to the first round. The ‘Under’ is the way to go but just can’t justify that price.
PASS
TOTAL WIDE RECEIVERS DRAFTED IN ROUND 1
OVER 5.5 WRs DRAFTED -160 UNDER 5.5 WRs DRAFTED +120
This draft looks to be better for linemen than receivers. The WRs we see going in the first round are Oklahoma’s CeeDee Lamb, Alabama’s Jerry Jeudy, Alabama’s Henry Ruggs III and LSU’s Justin Jefferson. Either Arizona State’s Brandon Aiyuk or Baylor’s Denzel Mims could sneak into the first round but probably not both. We’ll call it 5 wide receivers going in the first round and another play on the ‘Under’.
BET UNDER 5.5 WIDE RECEIVERS DRAFTED IN ROUND 1 +120
