BetOnline.ag has a list of simple ‘First Pick Props’. They quote the odds and you have to decide will the first pick be an ‘Offensive Player’ or a ‘Defensive Player’. Some of the ones that are blatantly obvious aren’t priced–for example, we all know that Cincinnati is picking an offensive player at at #1. We’ll run through some of these and try to find some decent value. We hit the first batch of these props in a previous post:
2020 NFL DRAFT FIRST PICK PROPS–PART TWO
DETROIT LIONS FIRST PICK
OFFENSIVE PLAYER +425 DEFENSIVE PLAYER -800
The Lions have their heart set on Ohio State cornerback Jeff Okudah. They’ve got the third pick in the draft and could potentially even trade down a bit and still get their guy.
PASS
GREEN BAY PACKERS FIRST PICK
OFFENSIVE PLAYER -270 DEFENSIVE PLAYER +180
It’ll be a shock if the Packers don’t pick an offensive player–most likely a wide receiver–to give Aaron Rodgers more weapons to work with.
BET GREEN BAY PACKERS FIRST PICK OFFENSIVE PLAYER -270
HOUSTON TEXANS FIRST PICK
OFFENSIVE PLAYER +130 DEFENSIVE PLAYER -170
Houston doesn’t have a first round pick this year and won’t have any picks in the top 100 except #40 (from Arizona) and #90. At this point, they’ll be trying to get the best athlete available and that might be Baylor wide receiver Denzel Mims which would give Deshaun Watson a frighting array of passing targets. Even if this scenario doesn’t transpire don’t see any reason to not take the value with the offensive player.
BET HOUSTON TEXANS FIRST PICK OFFENSIVE PLAYER +130
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS FIRST PICK
OFFENSIVE PLAYER -180 DEFENSIVE PLAYER +140
Another team without a first round pick Indy does have a pair of second round picks at #34 (from Washington) and #44. They need to upgrade their offensive line and they should have several good ones to choose from at #34 with names like Robert Hunt, Isiah Wilson and Austin Jackson potentially available.
BET INDIANAPOLIS COLTS FIRST PICK OFFENSIVE PLAYER -180
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS FIRST PICK
OFFENSIVE PLAYER +140 DEFENSIVE PLAYER -180
It looks like Jacksonville might get some fortuitious luck at #9. They have a bigtime need at defensive tackle and most projections suggest that Auburn’s Derrick Brown will be there for the picking. Brown is the #1 ranked player at the position. This is a tough one to screw up.
BET JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS FIRST PICK DEFENSIVE PLAYER -180
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS FIRST PICK
OFFENSIVE PLAYER +150 DEFENSIVE PLAYER -190
The Chiefs have the last pick in the first round and most projections (including mine) have them drafting a defensive player. Then again, they might go with the ‘best athlete available’ strategy at this spot.
PASS
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS FIRST PICK
OFFENSIVE PLAYER -250 DEFENSIVE PLAYER +170
Las Vegas has two picks in the first round at #12 and #19 (from Chicago) and won’t pick again until #80. Knowing their first pick will be heavily scrutinized for years to come they’ll likely go with as much of a ‘can’t miss’ player as they’ll find at #12. That will likely be Alabama wide receiver Jerry Jeudy. There’s talk that they might move up a bit and try to get cornerback CJ Henderson and one of four excellent receivers (Jeudy, Henry Ruggs III, CeeDee Lamp and Justin Jefferson) projected to be available mid first round. For that reason we’ll pass.
PASS
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS FIRST PICK
OFFENSIVE PLAYER -500 DEFENSIVE PLAYER +300
Chargers are almost a lock to take Oregon QB Justin Herbert with the #6 overall pick. He’s ranked #3 at the position behind Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa and depending on how concerned you are about Tagovailoa’s injuries you could convince me that Herbert is the #2 QB in the draft. That’s what the team needs and what they’ll likely get but that -500 price is a tough one.
PASS
LOS ANGELES RAMS FIRST PICK
OFFENSIVE PLAYER -115 DEFENSIVE PLAYER -125
Rams don’t pick until the second round at #52 and #57 (from Houston). This could go either way. One school of thought is that they need to find a running back to replace Todd Gurley and Ohio State’s JK Dobbins should be available then. Then again, they have a number of good defensive options if they want to go with the ‘best athlete available’ strategy. With Dobbins and possibly Wisconsin’s Jonathan Taylor available the ‘draft a running back’ rationale makes sense.
BET LOS ANGELES RAMS FIRST PICK OFFENSIVE PLAYER -115
MIAMI DOLPHINS FIRST PICK
OFFENSIVE PLAYER -1000 DEFENSIVE PLAYER +550
Miami has three first round picks at #5, #18 and #26 (the latter from Pittsburgh and Houston). This gives them a lot of options and there’s plenty of talk that they’ll move up to get Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa. That makes a lot of sense but don’t want to lay this price based on speculation.
