2020 Film Independent Spirit Awards Betting Odds

by James Murphy in Entertainment  / January 28, 2020

  • The Film Independent Spirit Awards are traditionally held the night before the Academy Awards.
  • There is more and more ‘overlap’ between the Independent Spirit Awards and the Oscars every year.
  • The 35th Independent Spirit Awards will be held on February 8, 2020 and broadcast live on IFC.

The last of the so-called ‘precursor’ awards to the Academy Awards really isn’t supposed to be a ‘precursor’ at all. The Film Independent Spirit Awards (that’s now the official name, changed from ‘Independent Spirit Awards‘) has historically recognized films that might have been too far out of the mainstream for the Oscars. Whether that’s the case anymore is debatable but more about that in a moment. Since 1999, the Film Independent Spirit Awards have been held on the night before the Academy Awards. Before that, they took place the a week before the ‘main event’. The Film Independent Spirit Awards are a project of Film Independent, a non-profit organization that also produces the Los Angeles Film Festival. Their mission statement is “to champion creative independence in visual storytelling and support a community of artists who embody diversity, innovation and uniqueness of vision”.

In many ways, the Film Independent Spirit Awards are now struggling to find their place in the digital era of filmmaking. The reality today is that anyone with a decent cellphone can start shooting video and that has lowered the ‘barrier to entry’ for would be movie makers. The Academy Awards have become more inclusive of independent films but the Independent Spirit Awards have had difficulty trying to recalibrate their selection process to stay on the ‘cutting edge’. To their credit, they’ve started to show some improvement from the past few years when many of the nominees in some categories were identical to the Academy Awards. This year, for example, there’s only one film nominated here for ‘Best Feature Film’ that is also up for the Academy Award for ‘Best Picture’.

2020 FILM INDEPENDENT SPIRIT AWARDS BETTING ODDS

TO WIN FILM INDEPENDENT SPIRIT AWARD FOR BEST FEATURE

Marriage Story                                            -250
Uncut Gems                                                +300
The Farewell                                              +500
A Hidden Life                                             +1500
Clemency                                                  +1500

TO WIN FILM INDEPENDENT SPIRIT AWARD FOR BEST FIRST FEATURE

Booksmart                                                 -200
The Mustang                                               +350
The Last Black Man in San Francisco                       +500
Diane                                                     +1500
See You Yesterday                                         +1500
The Climb                                                 +1500

TO WIN FILM INDEPENDENT SPIRIT AWARD FOR BEST DIRECTOR

Benny Safdie & Josh Safdie/Uncut Gems                     -200
Robert Eggers/The Lighthouse                              +250
Lorene Scafaria/Hustlers                                  +500
Alma Har'el/Honey Boy                                     +1500
Julius Onah/Luce                                          +1500

TO WIN FILM INDEPENDENT SPIRIT AWARD FOR BEST SCREENPLAY

Marriage Story                                            -450
Uncut Gems                                                +300
High Flying Bird                                          +1500
To Dust                                                   +1500
Clemency                                                  +1500

TO WIN FILM INDEPENDENT SPIRIT AWARD FOR BEST FIRST SCREENPLAY

See You Yesterday                                         -350
Driveways                                                 +250
Greener Grass                                             +500
The Vast of Night                                         +1500
Blow the Man Down                                         +1500

TO WIN FILM INDEPENDENT SPIRIT AWARD FOR BEST MALE LEAD

Adam Sandler/Uncut Gems                                   -500
Robert Pattinson/The Lighthouse                           +300
Matthias Schoenaerts/The Mustang                          +1500
Kelvin Harrison, Jr/Luce                                  +1500
Chris Galust/Give Me Liberty                              +2500

TO WIN FILM INDEPENDENT SPIRIT AWARD FOR BEST FEMALE LEAD

Renee Zellweger/Judy                                      -500
Alfre Woodard/Clemency                                    +450
Elisabeth Moss/Her Smell                                  +750
Mary Kay Place/Dianne                                     +1500
Hong Chau/Driveways                                       +2500
Karen Allen/Colewell                                      +3500

TO WIN FILM INDEPENDENT SPIRIT AWARD FOR BEST SUPPORTING MALE

Willem Dafoe/The Lighthouse                               -450
Shia LaBeouf/Honey Boy                                    +300
Noah Jupe    /Honey Boy                                   +1500
Jonathan Majors/The Last Black Man in San Francisco       +1500
Wendell Pierce/Burning Cane                               +1500

TO WIN FILM INDEPENDENT SPIRIT AWARD FOR BEST SUPPORTING FEMALE

Jennifer Lopez/Hustlers                                   -450
Zhao Shuzhen/The Farewell                                 +500
Taylor Russell/Waves                                      +1000
Octavia Spencer/Luce                                      +1000
Lauren 'Lolo' Spencer/Give Me Liberty                     +1000

TO WIN FILM INDEPENDENT SPIRIT AWARD FOR BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

The Lighthouse                                            -1000
Midsommar                                                 +500
Hustlers                                                  +1500
Honey Boy                                                 +1500
The Third Wife                                            +1500

TO WIN FILM INDEPENDENT SPIRIT AWARD FOR BEST EDITING

Uncut Gems                                                -650
The Lighthouse                                            +300
Give Me Liberty                                           +1500
Sword of Trust                                            +2500
The Third Wife                                            +2500

TO WIN FILM INDEPENDENT SPIRIT AWARD FOR BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM

Parasite                                                  -1500
Portrait of a Lady on Fire                                +750
The Invisible Life                                        +1500
Les Miserables                                            +1500
The Souvenir                                              +2500
Retablo                                                   +2500

TO WIN FILM INDEPENDENT SPIRIT AWARD FOR BEST DOCUMENTARY

American Factory                                          -150
Apollo 11                                                 +250
Honeyland                                                 +450
For Sama                                                  +700
Island of the Hungry Ghosts                               +1500

James Murphy

James Murphy is a preeminent authority on the international gambling industry and has made frequent appearances in the mainstream media including the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Forbes, Entertainment Weekly, CNBC and NPR. He has previously worked as a radio and podcasting host where he broadcast to an international audience that depended on his expertise and advice. Murphy also serves as an odds making consultant for sports and ‘non-sport novelty bets’ covering the entertainment industry, politics, technology, financial markets and just about everything else.

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